题源经济学人

今天小编将为大家推荐一篇考研英语的题源，希望能帮助大家。

Shake ’em up, Mr Carney

卡尼，教教他们

How the Bank of England’s new governor (and the chancellor) should stimulate

the British economy

英国央行新行长(还有财政大臣)应该怎样刺激英国经济?

Feb 2nd 2013 |From the printedition ON FEBRUARY 7th Mark Carney will appear before theTreasury Select Committee for his first formal grilling from British lawmakers since being named thenext governor of the Bank of England. This will be an important moment. MrCarney, hired away from the Bank of Canada, has recently given hints that hewants to shake up British monetary policy. He has talked about the need tostimulate an inert economy until it reaches “escape velocity”; he

has said thata central bank might need to “tie its hands” by announcing thresholds to bereached before it reduces stimulus; and he has suggested that the level ofnominal GDP—the cash value of output without adjusting for inflation—might be abetter target than inflation alone. This willingness to think afresh isadmirable. But Mr Carney must now connect the dots between his ideas.

英国央行行长卡尼(Mark Carney)将于2 月7 日公开露面，之后会接受财政部特别委员会英国立法委员的正式质询，这是他被任命为英国央行行长以来的首次质询，并且十分重要。卡尼是英国从加拿大央行聘请过来的，最近他暗示希望重新调整英国货币政策。他谈到疲软的经济需要刺激一下，直到它达到“逃脱速度”，中央银行需要“收一收手”，在减弱刺激之前宣布经济需要达到的水平。他还间接表示名义GDP(不进行通胀调整的现金产出价值)比起通胀是更好的目标。愿意重新思考经济解决方案令人钦佩，但是卡尼需要把自己的思想联系在

一起

At the moment the Bank of England’s mission, set bythe chancellor of the exchequer, is to focus on an inflation target of 2%. Thatmakes sense in normal circumstances. But with short-term interest rates atalmost zero, the economy growing at barely 2% in nominal terms(and not at all if you factor in inflation) and many years of austerity ahead,it is worth temporarily reinterpreting that policy and focusing on nominal suggestion is that the bank, backed by the chancellor, George Osborne,should make clear that it will not tighten policy until nominal GDP, currently £1.5 trillion,gets to a level that is at least 10%higher than today.

目前财政部长给英格兰银行设定的目标是将通胀率控制在2%。这在经济状况正常的情况下是可行的，但是由于短期利率几乎为零，经济增长按名义价值计算只有2%(如果考虑通胀则没有增长)。央行将在未来一些年内实施财政紧缩，暂时重新解释货币政策和着重于名义GDP 是很有必要的。我们的建议是：英格兰央行应该在奥斯本财相的支持下要清楚这一点，在名义GDP(目前为1.5 万亿英镑)基础上至少10%之前，这项措施不会收紧政策。

When short-term interest rates are as low as they arenow, central bankers can loosen monetary conditions in two ways. They can useunconventional tools, such as “quantitative easing” (printing money to buybonds), to push down interest rates further along the yield curve. And they canguide people’s expectations of the future path of interest rates or a central bank can credibly promise to keep monetary conditions loose evenas the economy recovers and inflation accelerates, it will, in effect, reducethe real level of interest rates today, and so boost the economy.

现在短期利率维持低位，央行行长可以通过两种方式宽松货币环境。他们可以使用非常规措施把利率按照收益曲线进一步推低，如“量化宽松”(即印钞票买债券)。另外他们还可以就对未来利率或通胀的走向对人们的期望加以引导。如果央行在经济复苏和通胀加速的状况下还能确保货币环境良好，那么这项措施能有效地降低现在的真实利率水平，也能繁荣经济。

The Bank of England has been willing to useunconventional tools. It was an early pioneerof quantitative easing; its morerecent “funding for lending” scheme for banks is a clever way to bring downbanks’ funding costs (and should be used to hit the nominal GDP target)ritain’s central bank has been less successful at mapping its future policypath. The Bank has interpreted its 2% inflation target in a flexible way,keeping monetary conditions loose even as inflation has stayed higher. But ithas not said how long such flexibility will last. Each time its interest-rate-settingcommittee meets, there is the possibility it will change its mind.

英国央行已经愿意使用非常规措施。之前它就是量化宽松政策的最早实施者，新近的“融资换贷款计划(funding for lending)”是降低银行集资成本的一剂良方(也应该应用到实现名义GDP 上)。但是英国央行没有很好地规划自己未来的政策路线。央行对目标通胀2%的解释比较灵活，保持货币环境即使在通胀维持高位情况下依旧宽松。但它没有说这灵活性要持续多久。央行每次开利率会议都有可能改变主意。

That is where the nominal GDP target comes in. By promising to keep monetary conditions loose until nominal GDP has risen by 10%,the Bank would provide certainty that interest rates will stay low even as theeconomy recovers. That will encourage investment and spending. At the same timean explicit target of 10% would set a limit to the looseness,preventingpeople’s expectations for inflation becoming permanently unhinged. It is an approach similar in spirit to the Federal Reserve’s recent commitment not toraise interest rates until America’s unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.

这就是为什么会使用名义GDP。通过允诺在名义GDP 升至10%之前保持货币环境宽松，央行保证利率维持在低位，即使经济恢复。这样就会鼓励投资和消费。同时， 10%的明确目标为宽松设置上限，防止人们对通胀的期望长久混乱。在本质精神上，这项措施类似于美联储(the Federal Reserve)近期承诺提升利率直到美国失业率降至6.5%以下。

This is not a perfect answer. Critics point out thatnominal GDP is hard to measure—and that no one knows exactly how big theshortfall in nominal GDP is, particularly since Britain’s productivity hasplunged since the financial crisis. Against that, a 10% increase is a fairlyconservative and clear target. Adopting it would be better for the Bank’scredibility than repeatedly missing the inflation target.

但这项措施不能完全解决问题。评论指出名义GDP 难以衡量，没人准确知道名义GDP 差额有多大，尤其是财政危机导致英国生产效率跳水之后。在此背景下，10%的增长相当保守，但目标明确。采取这项增长比不断错失通胀目标要有利于央行信誉。

Another worry is that all the growth would comethrough inflation. Sterling would fall, so imports would become pricier. Assetprices might bubble up, though Mr Carney could use other tools to cool them,such as limiting mortgage lending. There is in fact little risk of an unwantedboom. All this will take place as public spending is squeezed and Britain’smain trading partners in the euro zone are likely to be struggling.

再一个担忧是其它增长都在通胀中发生：英镑会贬值，因而进口更昂贵，资产价格或许会产生泡沫，尽管卡尼可以使用限制抵押贷款等其它措施为其降温。事实上发生预期外经济繁荣的风险几乎不存在。当公共开支受挤压，英国在欧元区的主要贸易伙伴可能艰难度日时，这一切都会发生。

The last problem is Mr Osborne. A temporarynominal-GDP target needs his explicit should give it, becauseagainst a background of tight fiscal policy, monetary policy is the best macroeconomic lever that Britain has.

最后的问题在于奥斯本(Osborne)，暂时的名义GDP 目标需要他明确支持。他应该支持这个目标，因为在财政紧缩状况下，货币政策是英国最好的宏观调控杠杆。名义国内生产总值(Nominal GDP)：指的是一国(或地区)一年以内在其境内生产出的全部最终产品和劳务的市场价值总和。GDP，作为国民经济核算体系的核心指标，是衡量一个国家(或地区)综合实力的`重要指标，如我们说的经济要达到8%的增长目标，指的就是国内生产总值，亦即GDP 要比去年增长8%。量化宽松(QE：Quantitative Easing)：主要是指中央银行在实行零利率或近似零利率政策后，通过购买国债等中长期债券，增加基础货币供给，向市场注入大量流动性资金的干预方式，以鼓励开支和借贷，也被简化地形容为间接增印钞票。量化指的是扩大一定数量的货币发行，宽松即减少银行的资金压力。当银行和金融机构的有价证券被央行收购时，新发行的钱币便被成功地投入到私有银行体系。量化宽松政策所涉及的政府债券，不仅金额庞大，

而且周期也较长。一般来说，只有在利率等常规工具不再有效的情况下，货币当局才会采取

这种极端做法。