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　　第一篇：A Changed Global Reality 世界经济格局新变化

Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician.

对于新世纪，我们得这样说：我们生活在一个有趣的时代。差不多两年半之前，世界经济陷入了20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期以来最惨重的低迷状态。世界贸易进程大幅放缓。失业队伍也越来越快，这在旧工业经济体系表现尤为突出。原来坚如磐石的金融机构也消失了，似乎还不如老套的魔术师变的花束看起来真实。

Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before.

考虑到经济衰退幅度如此的跨时代，经济复苏进程会很慢也是理所当然的，对此我们不应该感到吃惊。事实也正如我们所料，复苏进程确实很慢。全球经济政治精英乘直升飞机、大巴、小汽车或是火车前往达沃斯参加一年一度的世界经济论坛会议，此次会议上，全球经济政治精英会发现自己开始接受一些闻所未闻的事情。

The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output.

当今的情况是这样的。自工业革命以来的二百多年间，世界出现了两大经济体。一个支配着技术创新和贸易，累积了大量财富。另一个在政治上主要受前者的控制，在经济上一直处于贫穷状态并且在技术上存在依赖性。两者的鸿亘古存在。发达国家----美国、加拿大、西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本及亚洲四小龙，以世界总人口的16%输出着世界将近70%的产品。

But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010.

世界形势正发生着变化。在发达国家的富人们努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利的时候，曾经的穷人们却已经摆脱了经济困境。像中国和印度这样大的新兴经济体已经找到了国内需求的新来源。非洲的部分地区也正吸引着对他们真正感兴趣的投资者。总之，发展中国家的力量撑起了世界经济。据世界银行估计，2010年，中低收入国家的经济增长约占世界经济增长的一半(46%)。

A Sigh of Relief 经济回暖，令人欣慰

In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet.

从长远看来，这真的是个好消息。随着几十亿的贫苦人们开始变得富有起来，他们也将能够支付得起发达国家的人们所拥有过的享受，而这些享受在富人们眼中仅仅是普通的生活附属品而已。但是，在庆祝一个新的经济秩序建立之前，我们必须克服国与国之间以及国家内部存在的深层分歧。否则，世界将会重新陷入以邻为壑的民粹主义，最终每个人都沦为乞丐，我们仍未脱离困境。

First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets.

不过首先让我们评估一下目前情况。现在世界的状况比一年前我们所想象的要好得多。一些经济学家一直害怕发生的“双底衰退”也从未出现过。2008年的美国经济似乎一直停滞不前，但是现在一些早期迹象表明顾客开始消费了，银行也开始发放贷款了，同时股市也在经济萧条两年半之后达到了巅峰状态。尽管欧洲一直在一重接一重的主权外债危机下苟延残喘，但是它到目前为止已经避免了最糟糕的状况-----欧元崩溃，欧元崩溃是一种债务危机，从希腊和爱尔兰这样小的经济体流窜到意大利和西班牙这样大的经济体，并且加剧了一些国家的社会骚乱，这些国家在缩减公共预算的同时不得不减少薪资。

Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year.

听到如此多鼓舞人心的消息(或者至少是没有很糟糕的消息)，高盛经济学家几乎变得轻率起来，最近他们更新了2011年全球和美国经济增长预测(分别是4.8%和3.4%)。尽管2010年是“令人怀疑的一年”，但是高盛经济学家们宣称2011年肯定是经济复苏的一年，努里尔•卢比尼----美国经济学家，这次经济危机的预言者，认为如果一切都顺利，并且没有更糟糕的事情发生，全球经济今年可能会增长将近4%。

It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light."

有人肯定会说：并不是每个人都同意这个观点。吉姆•沃克----香港亚洲经济分析咨询公司的经济学家，预测2011年将会是“清算之年”。沃克谈到，美国经济的反弹只是由过度刺激形成的海市蜃楼。他认为美国将会落入2010年侥幸躲避过去的“双底衰退”之中。即使是不那么悲观的人也担心全球经济远没有恢复。大多数经济学家预计2011年经济反弹会逐渐消失，经济增长也可能会低于2010年。一月中旬，世界银行估测全球GDP增长将由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶鲁大学的经济学家史蒂芬•罗奇认为，世界经济仍会极力从上次经济繁荣期产生的债务和扭曲中脱身。“这真是一次缓慢的后经济危机考验。”罗奇说道，“我并不准备给经济复苏这个观点亮绿灯”。

The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn.

这种谨慎是可以理解的.。在发达国家，失业率仍然很高(美国是9.4%，欧元区是10.1%)。2008年9月的私营部门债务危机到2010年11月已经演变为公共部门危机。这是由经济低迷期刺激经济和救助银行时所累积的债务和财政赤字造成的。