2017年剑桥商务英语中级考试冲刺题

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　　油价推助粮食期货价格飙升

在原油价格飙升至每桶100美元后，农业大宗产品价格昨日升至多年高点，因交易员预计来自日益扩大的全球生物燃料行业的需求将会增加。

Agricultural commodities rose to multi-year highs yesterday following crude oil’s surge to $100 a barrel as traders anticipated higher demand from the expanding global biofuels industry.

在芝加哥，小麦期货价格上涨16美分至每蒲式耳9.31美元，距离其历史高点59美分，而大豆期货价格升至12.38美元，创下34年新高，玉米期货价格距近期创下的11年高位仅咫尺之遥。

In Chicago, wheat jumped 16 cents to $9.31 a bushel, 59 cents below its all-time high, while soyabeans rose to $12.38, a fresh 34-year high, and corn traded within touching distance of its recent 11-year high.

在巴黎，油菜籽价格升至历史高点，上涨1.5%至每吨444.75欧元，而马来西亚棕榈油期货昨日上探每吨961美元的历史高点。

In Paris, rapeseed prices rose to record levels, up 1.5 per cent to ?444.75 a tonne, while Malaysian palm oil futures also hit a record $961 a tonne yesterday.

由于粮食和油菜籽是生物燃料的关键原料，油价上涨给农业大宗商品价格带来了巨大的推动力。2007年，农业大宗商品市场的回报水平为近30年来最高。标准普尔GSCI农业大宗商品指数去年的涨幅为31%，为1981年以来的.最佳水平。

As grains and oil seeds are key feedstuffs for biofuels, the oil price rise has exerted a huge push on agricultural commodities, which enjoyed their best returns for almost 30 years in 2007. The S&P GSCI agricultural commodities index returned 31 per cent last year, its best performance since 1981.

人口增长以及对动物饲料的需求也为农产品价格提供了支撑。

Support is also coming from population growth and demand for animal feed.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品研究主管杰弗里?柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“在食品、饲料和燃料方面对农作物的需求混合在一起，造成了对农产品需求增长趋势的上行变化。”

“This combination of food, feed and fuel demand for crops has created an upward shift in the trend demand growth for agriculture products,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

他表示，到2010年，全球生物燃料需求可能从2005年的每年100亿加仑增至每年250亿加仑，折合为年率每年增长20%。

He said global biofuel demand could increase from 10bn gallons a year in 2005 to 25bn gallons annually by 2010, an annualised growth rate of 20 per cent.

由于供应方面不尽人意及需求不断上升，许多农产品市场的库存水平降至历史低点，这使得价格很容易受到上行冲击的影响。

As a result of supply disappointments and rising demand, stocks have fallen to historic lows in many agricultural markets, leaving prices very susceptible to upward price shocks.

许多分析师认为，此轮农业大宗商品的上涨才刚刚开始。

Many analysts believe the rally for agricultural commodities is only just beginning.

　　降息不是解决信贷市场动荡的办法

亿万富翁基金经理雷伊o戴利奥(Ray Dalio)表示，降息不是解决目前信贷市场动荡问题的方法。戴利奥是最近数月为美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)提供建议的专家之一。

Ray Dalio, the billionaire fund manager who was among the experts to advise the US Federal Reserve in recent months, has said interest rate cuts are not the solution to the turmoil in the credit markets.

基金公司Bridgewater Associates创始人和首席财务官戴利奥表示，实际上，长期解决方法将涉及汇率政策--比如中国人民币升值--以解决美国的贸易失衡问题。

Rather, Mr Dalio, founder and chief investment officer of money manager Bridgewater Associates, said the longer-term solution would involve currency policies - such as a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi - to address the US’s trade imbalance.

"我们当前的信贷问题是国际收支问题的另一个方面，"他向英国《金融时报》表示："这个世界一直充斥着流动性，资金不断从国外涌入，大量资金不得不迅速投资到位。"

"Our current credit problems are the flip side of our balance of payments problem," he told the Financial Times. "The world has been awash with liquidity and money has been pouring in from abroad, so lots of money had to get invested fast.

"美元作为全球主要的储备货币，加之主要盈余国家的货币盯住美元，这催生了以美元计价的债务泡沫--即大量不负责任的美元贷款。此轮抵押贷款危机仅仅是这个问题的表象之一。"

"The dollar being the world’s dominant reserve currency, coupled with the major surplus countries having their currencies pegged to the dollar, has led to a dollar denominated debt bubble - a lot of irresponsible lending in dollars. The mortgage crisis is just one reflection of this."

戴利奥运呼吁美联储停止降息，并为美国经济增长设立一个"现实的"目标：每年增长2.2%。这将是上世纪30年代以来的最低水平，同时也低于美联储2.5%的目标增长率。

Mr Dalio called for the Fed to stop cutting interest rates and to set a "realistic" target rate for US growth of 2.2 per cent a year. That would be the lowest since the 1930s, and below the 2.5 per cent that is the Fed’s target.

戴利奥表示，为了双方的利益，中国需要调高人民币兑美元汇率。

China needed to revalue its currency against the US dollar for the benefit of both countries, said Mr Dalio.

"(人民币)之所以处于目前的水平，是源自于一些历史原因，而它们不再适用，也是不可持续的。"他表示。

"The [renminbi] is where it is BECause of historical reasons that no longer apply and are unsustainable," he said.

"之所以说美元兑人民币及其他新兴市场货币贬值既有利于他们，也有利于我们，是因为我们有着相反的担忧--他们担心自己的经济过热和国外资产不断累积，而我们则担心本国的经济走软和我们的海外债务不断累积。"他表示。

"The reason a dollar devaluation against China’s currency and other emerging market currencies is now good for both them and us is that we have exactly opposite concerns - they are concerned about their economy overheating and their foreign assets building.